Three more months until college football season kicks off. But who’s counting?
I am.
The NFL Draft was a nice little teaser to whet our appetites during the offseason, and so were spring games. And now that we’re on the other side of those scrimmages, we can better assess how some teams might fare next season.
Check out what I’m currently backing.
This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.
Miami to win the ACC
Miami lost the national title game to Indiana last season and many in this program believe the team is better heading into this season.
The Hurricanes lost quarterback Carson Beck to the NFL but replaced him with Duke transfer quarterback Darian Mensah, who is the better of the two. Mensah threw for nearly 4,000 yards with 34 touchdowns and six interceptions. He also has the ability to rush the ball if needed. Miami has outstanding skill position players, highlighted by Malachi Toney at receiver and Mark Fletcher Jr. at running back.
The calling card for any team coached by Mario Cristobal is the trenches and the offensive line will be loaded once again. The Canes lost their top pass rushers to the NFL, but they’ve been replaced by young players who are ready for the spotlight. The Hurricanes’ defense has playmakers all over the back end of the defense as well.
Miami did not win the ACC last season because it lost two of three conference games in the middle of the season. Remember that bad loss against Louisville? Those happen. Then there was a weird game at SMU with some questionable officiating that gave SMU the win. Outside those games, the Hurricanes dominated the ACC. They won games by 6, 35, 38, 34, 17 and 31. They also beat Notre Dame and pummeled South Florida in the non-conference slate.
The Hurricanes have the best odds to win the conference, followed by SMU and Louisville. After those squads, there’s a big drop off to Virginia and Clemson. Miami’s in-conference schedule does not include SMU, Louisville or Virginia this season. It’s a schedule that Miami can easily run the table against. Their toughest conference road games are at Clemson and maybe North Carolina.
The Hurricanes get Duke at home, plus Pittsburgh — a team that’s always good for an occasional upset. They will be a favorite in every single conference game in a conference with a single playoff team. And that single playoff team is Miami.
I like this number, and it won’t get any better.
PICK: Miami (-135) to win the ACC
Michigan State Over/Under 4.5 wins
The Spartans are going to have a tough first season under Pat Fitzgerald.
Michigan State fired Jonathan Smith after two underwhelming seasons and hired Fitzgerald almost immediately to get the program back on track. The hiring of Fitzgerald was viewed as an excellent hire by most, but I have doubts about his ability to produce a winning program.
He was the head coach at Northwestern for 17 seasons. It’s a difficult job with strict academic requirements for its student athletes. Fitzgerald put together stretches at Northwestern that might never be matched. From 2012-2017, he won 10 games three times and finished with only two conference losses in two of those seasons. He won nine games in 2018, but then the backsliding started. There were three wins in 2019, followed by a 7-2 season during the COVID year. Anything that happened in college football that season should be ignored.
Northwestern won three games in 2021 and only one game in 2022. So if you’re counting, that’s two, three-win seasons and only one game in the other non-COVID-19 season. That amounts to 7-29 overall in those three seasons before getting fired the summer before the 2023 season.
Now, Michigan State’s roster has undergone the usual transformation that happens when a new coach arrives.
The Spartans have added lots of portal players to rebuild the roster. So it’s hard to project how they might look when the roster is settled for the season, but we can look at the overall talent to see if they have enough impact players. And there just aren’t enough right now to think they will be able to compete against the best on their schedule.
Looking at their slate, the Spartans have two games you can pencil in as wins: Toledo and Eastern Michigan.
The Spartans are going to lose to Notre Dame, Michigan, Washington and Oregon. They will be underdogs against Nebraska, Wisconsin, Illinois and UCLA. They have 50-50 games against Rutgers and Northwestern.
It’s going to be a tall task to have the depth to win five games with this schedule.
PICK: Michigan State Under 4.5 wins
About the Author
