Speaking to his team recently about the rest of the season, Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh framed it in the simplest of terms.
“Each and every game [is] going to be like a win-or-go-home game,” quarterback Lamar Jackson said, relaying Harbaugh’s message. “It’s the first season ever starting off this slow. It’s do-or-die right now, each and every week.”
Don’t roll your eyes. It might seem like coach-speak. But it’s spot-on.
Except for one thing. Here’s the reality that Harbaugh probably didn’t mention: It’s on Lamar to save the Ravens.
Harbaugh made his win-or-go-home comments after Week 8, when the Ravens were 2-5. Speaking with the media, the longtime Baltimore coach admitted he’s done the mental math on how many victories he thinks he’ll need to get into the postseason. He wouldn’t divulge that number, but consider that a team hasn’t won the AFC North with nine wins since 1990. So let’s start at 10, as a baseline. The Ravens are 4-5 with eight games left. Six more wins should put them in contention.
“Keep winning. Keep winning. Keep winning,” Jackson said last week.
Whatever the number, the Ravens won’t get there without the two-time NFL MVP, who missed three games earlier this season with a hamstring injury.
Jackson did not practice on Wednesday due to a knee issue, but Harbaugh said he expects him back on the field on Thursday. It marked yet another inauspicious week for Baltimore and its star quarterback.
Lamar Jackson and John Harbaugh celebrate a touchdown against the Dolphins on Oct. 30, which was the QB’s first game back after missing three weeks due to injury. (Photo by Logan Bowles/Getty Images)
With a grueling early schedule, the Ravens were expected to have a rough start. But at 1-5, it was rougher than we all expected, and it was even worse when Jackson — the player Harbaugh has predicted will be “the greatest quarterback of all time” — was sidelined.
Jackson still has his work cut out for him — only four teams have ever reached the postseason after starting 1-5. Beyond that, he’ll also fight the massive expectations. With Jackson back on the field, it seems to be a forgone conclusion that the Ravens will make the playoffs. Baltimore has a 64.1% chance, according to ESPN Analytics. The New York Times Playoff Simulator is even more bullish on the Ravens, giving Baltimore a 76% chance.
That’s despite the history of just 1% of 1-5 teams making the playoffs. That’s despite Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers‘ strong play (up until last week). That’s despite Bengals QB Joe Burrow returning to practice, hoping to return ahead of Cincinnati’s two games against the Ravens (Nov. 27, Dec. 14).
The analytics and the bookmakers like the Ravens. And of course, that’s because of Lamar.
“We still feel like we’re 1-5, because we’re behind in our division. We can’t get complacent. Stay locked in,” Jackson said.
It hasn’t always been like that for the Ravens.
“Partially what got us to 1-5 is we came into the season maybe thinking — not going to speak for everyone but — we’re the Baltimore Ravens,” safety Kyle Hamilton said. “We’re going to do this. We’re going to do that. Teams are just going to lay down and let us win games. And that’s not how it is in this league. We got punched in the mouth early. … We’ll have that scar tissue going forward.”
In his two games since coming back, Jackson has been sensational — and in totally different ways. He put a shellacking on the Miami Dolphins to the tune of 204 passing yards and four passing touchdowns, with a healthy infusion of intermediate passing.
But the Ravens tightened up their offense against the Minnesota Vikings, one of the most blitz-happy teams in the league. Jackson attacked the Vikings with the quick game, and though his passing numbers didn’t look incredible (176 passing yards, one touchdown), it was a solid performance to come out with a win in Minnesota.
That’s what we’ve come to expect from Jackson, a chameleon who can attack defenses in any and every way. For a long time, it was impressive to watch him as a dual threat. But now, his knowledge and experience have brought a new depth to Baltimore’s offense. It’s rare to see a defense that fools him, which is a big reason why he has an absurdly low interception percentage this year (.7%), just like last year (.8%). Blitzes don’t phase him, because he’s so fast to get the ball to his hot route — or to scramble for a big play.
Jackson’s return is sure to fuel greater production from veteran running back Derrick Henry, whose yards per carry are down from 5.9 last season (which was downright incredible) to 4.8 this year (which is still pretty dang good). Baltimore’s defense is playing better, which seems to be the recent pattern — a unit that comes together by Thanksgiving. Hamilton is playing the best defense of his life, which puts him squarely in the conversation as the NFL’s best defensive player.
Still, the 2025 Ravens aren’t a playoff team without Lamar. What he’s about to do — what everyone expects him to do — is truly spectacular. And if he does it, it should put him in the MVP conversation yet again.
Before joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.
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