For the first time in 16 years, we’ve got a battle between the top two teams in the country in a conference championship game.
No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana will meet up in Indianapolis on Saturday for the Big Ten Championship Game, which I’ll be on the call for on FOX.
That’s just one of this weekend’s three highly anticipated games that feature two teams ranked in the top 12 of the most recent College Football Playoff poll.
As we enter the last weekend before the CFP reveal, let’s dive into my Big Ten title game preview, along with my picks for the other top games this weekend.
A lot is on the line in this one. Of course, the winner gets the Big Ten title, but it’ll also get the No. 1 seed in the CFP. The winning quarterback might also win the Heisman Trophy, as Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Ohio State’s Julian Sayin are the two front-runners to win the award entering the weekend.
While the two quarterbacks are the headline attractions for their respective teams, Indiana and Ohio State are the two most complete teams in the nation. You can’t argue against the fact that both those teams are balanced in their offensive approaches and great on both sides of the ball. They both have great coaching staffs on top of that, playing fundamentally sound football.
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Indiana’s offense against Ohio State’s defense is a fascinating matchup. The Buckeyes’ defense has been the singular best unit in college football, but the Hoosiers’ offense hasn’t been too shabby either. The foundation of how they play offense starts with the run game, not with Mendoza. Indiana has been one of the best rushing teams in the country, playing methodically, as these teams are sort of mirror images of each other. But Indiana’s run game is its catalyst, with the games where it had the toughest time moving the ball coming when it struggled to run the ball. Indiana’s passing game is predicated on run-pass options (RPOs).
Still, Mendoza is clearly a fantastic player. Even in the games when Indiana struggled to establish the run, he was able to be spectacular late completing the football. That’s what he did at Iowa and Penn State, putting the team on his shoulders to get the win. That’s what I love about Mendoza. He’s a terrific player, and he has been at his best when his best has been needed. He also has Elijah Surratt on the outside, who’s one of the best wide receivers in the country.
Meanwhile, this Ohio State defense has been outstanding. It has four first-round picks right down the middle of its defense: nose tackle Kayden McDonald, safety Caleb Downs and linebackers Sonny Styles and Arvell Reese (who might be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft). That allows the Buckeyes to adjust and run different schematics. They’re also sticky with their coverage, as there are very few wide-open receivers on the field. That’s what you need to stop RPOs. So, Ohio State’s defense is uniquely suited to stop Indiana.
Ohio State’s offense has also developed into a unit that can do whatever it wants. When you look at Ohio State’s offense, it can essentially choose how it wants to attack the other team on any given day and be elite at it. That’s dangerous for an opponent. OSU has been strong in every area throughout the season. The only possible weakness is the right side of the offensive line, rotating right guards and missing some blocks at points throughout the season.
Can Indiana, which is a movement-oriented zone defense, get home against Ohio State? If it can’t, Sayin is electric. Just ask Michigan. Sayin ate the Wolverines ate them up because they couldn’t pressure him. Star Buckeyes wide receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate looked healthy in that game after missing time due to injury recently. It’s very hard to stop this Ohio State passing attack, but it starts with winning the battle at the line of scrimmage. No one has been able to do that for a sustained amount of time this season, though, and Ohio State has run the ball very well in the second half of the season, going for 199 rushing yards per game in the past five weeks.
An individual matchup I can’t wait to watch is Smith against Indiana cornerback D’Angelo Ponds. The two were actually high school teammates. Ponds has been great for Indiana and is largely left alone in coverage. He’s giving up a lot of size to Smith in this battle, yet he did a pretty good job against Ohio State in last season’s matchup.
Georgia and head coach Kirby Smart get another crack at Alabama. I really can’t believe it, but Smart is 1-7 against Alabama. We’ve seen other coaches get killed for underperforming against specific opponents, like ex-Penn State coach James Franklin in top-10 matchups and OSU’s Ryan Day against Michigan. Nobody mentions that Smart is 1-7 against Alabama, but maybe no one talks about it because of the two national championships. However, Smart is also 0-2 against Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer, so it’s not just a Nick Saban problem.
Can Georgia fix that? The Bulldogs are the better team in this game. I have a question about which versions of each of these teams we’ll get in this game, though, because both teams have been a bit up and down. Georgia has played really well, like it did against Texas, but we also saw Georgia sleepwalk against Georgia Tech. Which Georgia do we get this time around? Will we get the one that didn’t show up in the first half of the previous two Alabama matchups, or the one that played great in the second half of those games?
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If you get the full attention of Georgia, it’s the better team in this game. Georgia missed a couple of plays in the first meeting against Alabama that could’ve swung the game in its favor. Georgia’s pass rush is also questionable, playing at an underwhelming level for big sections of the season. It showed up, though, when it needed to against Arch Manning and Texas.
Alabama is so one-dimensional on offense that it scares me when you’re going up against a Smart-led team. Crimson Tide running back Jam Miller left early in the Auburn game, and he’s the one bright spot in Alabama’s ground game. Even if he’s available, Alabama’s offense is still one-dimensional, and there are still moments when Alabama’s passing game has struggled. Quarterback Ty Simpson has been held to less than 100 passing yards in the second half of Alabama’s past five SEC games. That’s a problem.
I’ve also been a bit confused by the saga involving Alabama wide receiver Ryan Williams. There hasn’t been a ton talked about it, but he was easily the second-best freshman wideout in the sport last year to OSU’s Smith, and he’s just gone away this year. He didn’t have a single target last week. Simply put, I trust Georgia in a big game.
Pick: Georgia 27, Alabama 17 (Georgia -2.5)
I hope this one’s a good game, but Texas Tech dominated the first matchup between these two, and it’s why the Red Raiders are 12.5-point favorites. Texas Tech won that first game handily, 29-7, and it could’ve been much worse.
BYU has to run the ball. It has to lean on running back LJ Martin. He has 75 carries over the past three games, and Texas Tech has the best rush defense in college football, so this is a terrible matchup for BYU.
Ohio State-Indiana, Georgia-Alabama, Texas Tech-BYU and more Championship Game Picks!
Texas Tech is one of the most complete teams in the country, and it’s on a different level this season. It starts with that defense, and the investments the program made on that side of the ball this offseason have been huge for the Red Raiders. Jacob Rodriguez has also been fantastic at linebacker.
Texas Tech has won all 11 of its games by at least 20 points. It’s 10-0 with Behren Morton at quarterback. He’s an experienced quarterback, and Texas Tech has been building toward this moment.
Pick: Texas Tech 31, BYU 10 (Texas Tech -12.5)
Duke against Virginia in the ACC Championship Game because … why not? Duke is 7-5 and playing for a conference title. It reminds me of the old Big 12 North, where yours truly helped Colorado reach the Big 12 Championship Game even though we had no business being there.
Anyway, Duke could really throw a wrench into the whole playoff conversation. If Duke wins this game, the ACC is going to be sweating and hoping Miami (Fla.) can somehow get an at-large spot — because the conference wouldn’t get an at-large spot.
Miami not in ACC Championship, Does Notre Dame deserve a higher CFP ranking over them?
Virginia just beat Duke two weeks ago, though, and that game was at Duke. The Blue Devils lean on the passing game with quarterback Darian Mensah, but the Cavaliers’ defense is the second-best in the ACC and is the second-best in the nation on third down. That said, it’s a bad matchup for Duke.
Virginia had won a bunch of close games earlier. Then, it stretched out its margin of victory a bit more. I know Virginia lost to Wake Forest recently, but quarterback Chandler Morris was knocked out of that game, so Virginia has been a good team with its starting quarterback.
Duke’s defense isn’t very good. In fact, it’s one of the worst in the ACC, allowing 30 points per game. Its pass defense is in the bottom 10 in the country. Virginia is just the better team, and I don’t really understand the line in this game.
Pick: Virginia 38, Duke 17 (Virginia -3.5)
I really like this North Texas team. It’s No. 1 in the country in both scoring and total offense. The Mean Green have scored 50 in five of their past six games. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker leads the nation in passing at 320 yards per game. They can also run it with running back Caleb Hawkins, who has gone for 110 yards per game this season.
Tulane, meanwhile, has had a good season with ex-BYU QB Jake Retzlaff. He has been an effective dual-threat signal-caller, but North Texas just seems different on offense, and I think it gets it done on the offensive side to get the win.
Pick: North Texas 30, Tulane 27 (North Texas -2.5)
Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him @joelklatt and subscribe to “The Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.
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