There are quite a few things that have my wheels turning ahead of this week’s College Football Playoff rankings reveal.
First, will Texas A&M move to No. 2?
The Aggies blew out a ranked SEC opponent on the road. Indiana needed the catch of the year to win at Penn State — a team winless in the Big Ten.
Even if it doesn’t happen this week, it could happen if the Aggies go to Austin in a couple of weeks and win.
Why does this matter?
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If Indiana falls to No. 3 and loses the Big Ten title game to Ohio State, there’s a chance the Hoosiers could fall outside the top four in the final CFP rankings and miss out on the first-round bye. I guess the same applies to A&M.
But the point is, whoever enters Championship Saturday in the No. 2 spot should be safe for a first-round bye.
Then we have to look at if the CFP reassesses Notre Dame.
Having Notre Dame (-380 to make CFP) ahead of Texas and Oklahoma, as well as obviously Miami, feels wrong. Both Texas and OU have better wins and a better strength of schedule than the Irish. Not to mention, Miami beat the Irish to start the year, and all three have identical 7-2 records.
Of Notre Dame’s seven wins, three have come against the last place teams in the ACC, Big Ten and SEC in Boston College, Purdue and Arkansas. Those squads are a combined 0-18 in league play and 5-24 overall (only two of those five wins came against FBS teams).
Yes, it’s clear Notre Dame has improved since Week 1, but isn’t part of that improvement a result of who Notre Dame has played? The Irish have gone from being underrated after losing their first two games of the year to the two best teams they will play, to being a bit overrated right now.
Then, why all the love for Utah?
The Utes (+280 to make CFP) have a home win over a fringe Top 25 team in Cincinnati. They were thoroughly beaten at home by Texas Tech in a game where starting QB Behren Morton was injured, and they blew a lead at BYU. Utah’s strength of record is worse than Miami, Illinois, Georgia Tech, USC, Michigan and Vanderbilt — teams it is currently ranked ahead of. Its SOS is outside the top 50.
Please make it make sense.
I’m not sure the Utes win out at Baylor, against K-State and at Kansas, but I’d expect the committee to look again here to see if it has Utah ranked properly.
Also, Oregon and Texas Tech go over Ole Miss, right? The short-handed Ducks (-340 to make CFP) got a hard-earned road win over CFP No. 20 Iowa and Texas Tech (-800 to make CFP) blew out unbeaten BYU.
Ole Miss (-2000 to make CFP) blew out The Citadel.
If we’re truly starting from scratch each week, both Oregon and Tech did more this week and deserve to be moved up.
Fear not, Ole Miss, you’re in and will be hosting a Playoff game.
The G5 leader is … James Madison? South Florida? Most power ratings have the Bulls (+125 to make CFP) ahead of JMU, but the Bulls’ path to winning the AAC is much more difficult than what JMU (+190 to make CFP) will face in the Sun Belt.
Advantage, Dukes?
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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