The College Football Playoff picture remains wide open entering Week 12, but only a select few teams truly control their postseason destiny.
Following the second release of this season’s CFP rankings, FOX Sports lead college football analyst Joel Klatt believes we now have a clear sense of which teams can simply “win and get in” — and which ones will need a little chaos to reach the 12-team field.
Here’s a breakdown of the teams Klatt says are locks if they win out, those likely to make it with a perfect finish, and those still hoping for help.
Which teams in the CFP top 25 control their own destiny? 🤔
Teams that 100 percent control their own fate
No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Indiana, No. 3 Texas A&M, No. 4 Alabama, No. 5 Georgia, No. 6 Texas Tech, No. 7 Ole Miss, No. 8 Oregon, No. 9 Notre Dame, No. 10 Texas, No. 11 Oklahoma, No. 12 BYU, No. 25 Cincinnati
Outside of Cincinnati, Klatt understandably put each of the teams ranked in the top 12 in this category. Texas, ranked No. 10, still has games against two teams ahead of it — Georgia and Texas A&M — putting the Longhorns in a strong position to make the CFP if they take care of business. Meanwhile, No. 11 Oklahoma visits No. 4 Alabama on Saturday, giving the Sooners a prime opportunity to climb further up the rankings.
As for No. 12 BYU, the Cougars would reach the Big 12 Championship Game by winning their final three regular-season matchups. If they went on to capture the conference title, they’d earn an automatic bid to the CFP. That’s the same logic behind Klatt listing No. 25 Cincinnati as another team that completely controls its own destiny.
“Cincinnati controls its own fate to get to the Big 12 Championship Game,” Klatt said. “Thus, if they were to win that, they would get the automatic berth out of the Big 12, and lo and behold, they would find themselves in the College Football Playoff.”
BYU and Cincinnati go head-to-head in Week 13 in what could be viewed as a play-in game for the Big 12 Championship Game.
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Very confident, but not certain, these teams make the CFP if they win out
No. 16 Georgia Tech
If Georgia Tech wins out, it would finish the year 11-1 with a victory over Georgia at a neutral site in its final regular-season game. Klatt believes that would likely be enough for the Yellow Jackets to make the CFP.
“Even in a scenario that they don’t go to the ACC Championship Game, there’s a really good chance with a win over Georgia that they would be considered,” Klatt said. “[They would be] right up there as a bubble team. Again, 90%, 95% chance they [make it]. They may not be in the ACC Championship Game … but it’s hard to see a scenario where they wouldn’t get in as an 11-1 team.”
No. 17 USC
Similar to Texas and Oklahoma, Klatt believes that USC has some major opportunities to climb up the CFP rankings before the regular season ends thanks to its schedule.
“The rest of their schedule affords them an opportunity to have marquee, massive ranked wins on their résumé,” Klatt said. “They have Iowa this week. They still have to travel to Oregon, and they would be in a position where I’m like, 90, 95% sure they’re probably in [the CFP] in that scenario.”
No. 18 Michigan
Of course, Michigan has a big opportunity ahead when it hosts top-ranked Ohio State in the final week of the regular season.
“They’d be on a six-game win streak, and they would have just beaten the No. 1 team in the country, Ohio State,” Klatt said. “You can’t keep that team out of the playoff. If you’re trying to find the 12 best teams, and there are at-large spots, you’re in that scenario, you would have to include Michigan. Two years removed from a national championship, having just beaten the No. 1 team in the country on a six-game winning streak. That team’s not getting left out at 10-2.”
No. 22 Pitt
At 7-2 with a loss to West Virginia and ranked 22nd, Pitt’s inclusion in this category might be surprising. But Pitt’s schedule affords it plenty of opportunities to climb the rankings, according to Klatt.
“Pitt is also interesting,” Klatt said. “Now, they don’t have any quality wins right now, but look at the rest of their schedule. They’ve got Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and Miami to finish. You win those three games, and it’s not guaranteed that they would play for an ACC championship, but even at that point, they would be in line for a discussion to be in as an at-large team. Those would be massive wins. You’d be knocking Notre Dame out of there, who’s above you. You’d be knocking Miami out of the way, who’s above you.”
CFP Rankings Reaction: Indiana over Texas A&M + who actually controls their own destiny for the CFP?
Which teams need some help?
No. 13 Utah
Klatt pointed to Utah’s lack of a path to the conference title game and its remaining schedule (Baylor, Kansas State, Kansas) for why it has a narrow CFP path.
“There’s not enough. I think 13 is their ceiling right now,” Klatt said. “Even if BYU were to lose another game, they would only have two losses. Like, let’s say BYU goes to the conference championship game, beats Cincinnati, and then loses to Tech again. Well, they still have more wins than Utah [and the head-to-head win].”
No. 14 Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt has a chance to add a ranked win (Tennessee) before the season ends, but Klatt doesn’t think that would be enough for the Commodores to make the CFP.
“No wins against current top 25 teams,” Klatt said. “Their good wins are right now against LSU, South Carolina, and Missouri. They’re all outside of the top 25. They’re not going to be winning many résumé battles. And let’s be candid about the game against Texas. They got handled against Texas. Now, those that want to say ‘Oh, look at the scoreboard and [Diego] Pavia went off.’ No, he didn’t. He had garbage time numbers. … Even Texas at 9-3 is going to win an argument over a 10-2 Vanderbilt team.”
No. 15 Miami (Fla.)
The Hurricanes have two of the top non-conference wins in college football this season, beating Notre Dame and USF. However, Miami’s stumbles in conference play have put it in a tricky spot with its 7-2 record, Klatt pointed out.
“It should tell you everything you need to know about the ACC that Miami right now is sitting in seventh in the ACC and yet, it’s the highest-ranked team out of the ACC,” Klatt said. “If they were to win out, they’d be right on the bubble.
“So, what do we do with Miami? Miami’s got to hope that Texas falls off. They’ve got to hope that Vandy gets beat by Tennessee. They’ve got to hope that they don’t stumble because they’ve got to go to Pitt and play a cold-weather road game in November. So there’s no guarantee that they’re even going to be in that position. But if they can get to a position where they’re in direct comparison with Notre Dame, I will pound the table for Miami.”
If Miami wins out, would they make the CFP over Notre Dame? 🤔
The rest (No. 19 Virginia, No. 20 Louisville, No. 21 Iowa, No. 23 Tennessee, No. 24 South Florida)
Klatt didn’t specifically hit on Iowa and Tennessee, but their inclusions in this category are pretty self-explanatory. They each already have three losses. In the case of Tennessee, all three of its losses came to teams that it might be jockeying with for an at-large spot (Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma). So, the path for the Volunteers is pretty narrow, if not nil.
As for Virginia, Louisville and USF, Klatt pointed out that their paths to the CFP are still uncertain even if they win out.
“You might be thinking to yourself there’s teams in there that would certainly control their own fate in the ACC or even in the Group of 6 with South Florida at 24,” Klatt said. “Here’s the problem with that, we actually don’t know [who controls their own destiny] in any of those cases because we don’t know what the tiebreaker would ultimately land on. So I can’t confidently say, nor anybody can, who actually controls their fate in those conferences, the American Conference or in the ACC, because we don’t know which teams are going to be tied. We don’t know which tiebreakers will be used.”
Entering Week 12, Virginia sits in second place in the ACC with a 5-1 conference record, while Louisville is in sixth with a 4-2 conference record. Louisville does have one of the five ACC teams with one conference loss left on its schedule (SMU), so the Cardinals will likely need some help. Virginia, meanwhile, has one game against one of those five teams as well (Duke).
In the case of USF, it’s one of five teams in the AAC with one conference loss entering Week 12. It does play Navy (5-1 in conference play) on Saturday, though, so it could help itself clear the field to make the AAC Championship Game.
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