Two teams trending in opposite directions meet at Wrigley Field on Saturday afternoon with plenty to play for.
Michigan enters Saturday’s Big Noon matchup fresh off a bye week and riding a three-game winning streak, but questions remain about whether the Wolverines’ offense can generate enough firepower to compete with the Big Ten’s elite.
On the other sideline, Northwestern opened the season with a 5-2 mark but have since dropped two straight. Now sitting one victory shy of bowl eligibility, Northwestern faces its most difficult stretch yet — beginning with a Michigan team built to win games like this.
FOX Sports college football writers Laken Litman, Michael Cohen and RJ Young weigh in on Week 12’s “Big Noon Saturday” showdown between Michigan (7-2) and Northwestern (5-4).
1. Michigan is coming off a bye and has won three straight heading into Saturday’s matchup against Northwestern — what do you see as the Wolverines’ biggest flaw or vulnerability that could surface in a game like this?
RJ Young: Michigan lacks the kind of offensive firepower needed to overcome a two-score deficit. If the Wolverines find themselves in that position again — as they did against Oklahoma and USC — it’s hard to see offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey and quarterback Bryce Underwood finding the answers that other teams have managed this season.
This is an offense that has to stay on schedule and play complementary football to help its defense control games. The good news for the Wolverines this weekend is that Northwestern is built in much the same way.
Bryce Underwood #19 of the Michigan Wolverines celebrates after the win against the Washington Huskies. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)
Michael Cohen: RJ’s read on the situation is accurate for an offense that will enter the weekend tied for 67th nationally and 11th in the Big Ten in scoring at 28.1 points per game, one spot behind offensively challenged Iowa in the conference rankings. And even that figure — 28.1 points per game — is somewhat misleading considering how much of an outlier the Wolverines’ 63-3 win over Central Michigan has proven to be relative to the other games on their schedule. That was the only time this season that Michigan has exceeded 34 points in a game and one of only four times it has reached 30 points. Without it, the Wolverines’ scoring average drops to 23.8 points per game, a number that would place them into a tie for 95th nationally.
For context, Michigan averaged 22 points per game last season with a revolving door at quarterback before firing offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell.
So, what is the biggest flaw or vulnerability? It’s the downfield passing attack. Michigan ranks 107th nationally in passing yards per game (185.7) and is one of only 10 teams in the country to generate fewer than three completions of 40-plus yards, a list that also includes Bowling Green, Coastal Carolina, Fresno State, Louisville, Oklahoma, UCLA, Virginia Tech, Oregon State and Sam Houston State.
Some of that can be attributed to dropped passes: The Wolverines’ total of 19 already this season is only two shy of the 21 Michigan racked up across 15 games while winning the national title in 2023. Some of that can be attributed to the freshman growing pains of quarterback Bryce Underwood: His completion rate of 60.9% ranks 87th nationally. Some of that can be attributed to an offensive line that has shuffled bodies all season: Seven linemen have logged at least 235 snaps this season.
Put all that together, and it’s clear that right now — with only two weeks remaining before Michigan’s showdown against No. 1 Ohio State — the passing attack isn’t good enough to dig the Wolverines out of any holes.
Laken Litman: If Michigan wants to beat Ohio State for a fifth straight year in a couple of weeks, then its true freshman quarterback, Bryce Underwood, needs to be at his best. And in order for him to be at his best, he needs to get into a rhythm in games like this one coming up against Northwestern.
The Wolverines are riding a three-game winning streak, but Underwood’s production has dipped in the two games leading into the bye. He completed just 8 of 17 passes for 86 yards and no touchdowns against Michigan State, then went 13-of-22 for 145 yards with an interception against Purdue. Michigan has leaned heavily on its ground game, which is averaging 223.8 rushing yards per game at 5.8 yards per carry, but head coach Sherrone Moore needs to find a way to get more out of Underwood.
Speaking of the running game, though, Moore said this week that star running back Justice Haynes, who injured his foot vs. Michigan State is “week to week” after reportedly having surgery. And that’s not where the injury list ends. It also includes linebackers Jimmy Rolder and Cole Sullivan, safety Rod Moore, tight ends Hogan Hansen and Marlin Klein, as well as wide receiver Donaven McCulley.
Michigan running back Justice Haynes speaks to the media during the postgame press conference after a game against Wisconsin. (Photo by Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images)
There’s still so much up in the air with the College Football Playoff and if Michigan has a chance at all to make the 12-team field, it needs to get healthy.
2. Northwestern’s hot start feels like a long time ago. After two straight losses and a tough stretch ahead, what’s gone wrong for the Wildcats — and what needs to happen to salvage a bowl bid?
Laken Litman: What’s gone wrong is that after starting 5-2 – with an upset win over Penn State on the road – Northwestern has run into more talented teams like Nebraska and USC and are now 5-4. To be fair, there was only an outside shot the Wildcats would win those games. This week, even though the game against Michigan is in Chicago at Wrigley Field, Wolverines fans travel well, so it’s hard to imagine that crowd being an advantage for the home team.
That said, the Wildcats are just one win away from becoming bowl eligible and with games left against Michigan, Minnesota and Illinois, that seems feasible. Perhaps it will happen against the Golden Gophers at home on Nov. 22.
RJ Young: Quite simply, Northwestern had the benefit of playing against poor competition. Every one of the Wildcats’ wins this season has come against teams who have won three games or fewer. Every one of their losses has come to teams with winning records.
Against completion on their level, the Wildcats have just not been able to win. But the games are competitive and a break here or there could make the difference. In what I expect to be a low-scoring game against the Wolverines, they might just get that break.
Preston Stone #8 of the Northwestern Wildcats celebrates with the team after a game against Penn State. (Photo by Isaiah Vazquez/Getty Images)
Michael Cohen: There’s a saying in football, and rightfully so, that quarterbacks always receive too much praise when their team wins and receive far too much blame when their team loses. But it’s hard to ignore the bipolar production put forth by Northwestern quarterback Preston Stone based on the level of competition, as Laken and RJ both noted.
In victories over Western Illinois, UCLA, UL-Monroe, Penn State and Purdue — five teams with a combined record of 14-33 this season — Stone has thrown 10 touchdowns with only one interception while averaging 183.4 yards per game. Yet in losses to Tulane, then-No. 4 Oregon, Nebraska and then-No. 19 USC — four teams with a combined record of 29-8 — Stone has thrown just one touchdown and eight interceptions while averaging 151.3 yards per game.
So while the Wildcats only need one victory in their final three games to reach bowl eligibility, achieving that feat might be more difficult than it sounds given who’s left on the schedule: No. 18 Michigan, Minnesota and Illinois — three teams that have all notched at least six victories this season. The likelihood of Stone finding another gear at this point in the season against high-quality opponents feels slim, which means Northwestern’s losing streak should continue on Saturday and beyond.
Laken Litman covers college football, college basketball and soccer for FOX Sports. She is the author of “Strong Like a Woman,” published in spring 2022 to mark the 50th anniversary of Title IX. Follow her at @LakenLitman.
RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him @RJ_Young.
Michael Cohen covers college football and college basketball for FOX Sports. Follow him @Michael_Cohen13.
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